Tuesday, January 28, 2014

What's the Probability I Will Win?

Have you ever been in a conflict with someone and you don't know how to solve it fairly? For example, my friend and I would always argue on who should pay for our food. Normally, people would just split the check, but not us! We were both stubborn, which meant I hated losing against her. How do we solve our problem? Easy, have three matches of rock, paper, scissors and see who two out of three!

The game is simple: Paper beats rock, rock beats scissors,and scissors beats paper. Mathematically we both have an equal chance of winning since we can pick one out of the three. However, is this game really fair?




Play this game with a friend or play Rock, Paper, Scissors against the computer 45 times. Keep track on how many times you win, lose, or tie. At the same time tally mark how many times you showed rock, paper, or scissors. Make sure your partner keeps track of theirs or if you are playing against the computer, keep track of the computer's data.
Now out of 45, make a fraction of how many times you won, lost, and tied. Who won? Was the results fair ( both of you won the same number of times)?

Well theoretically there should have been an equal amount of times of winning, losing, and tying. Since there is 1/3 of winning, 1/3 of losing, and 1/3 of tying, but why is it 1/3? Well there are a total of three choices to pick from and there are three possible outcomes.

However, we all know that we do not live in a perfect world. The activity you did earlier was the practice of experimental probability. There are multiple factors that could differ the results such as basing off what the opponent did previously or watching them closely to find patterns your partner makes when throwing a specific hand gesture. If you went against the computer you may have seen the patterns it was making.

Therefore, theoretically playing rock, paper, scissors is a fair game to play, but in reality it may or may not be depending on your luck. So make sure to know your opponent's moves since it can be crucial when paying for food.